The 1960 CTMBL Baseball Prospectus

The “better late than never” edition!

 

 

                First off an apology of sorts since I meant to get this out 2 weeks ago but work and some personal stuff intervened.

 

            You have already had some good predictions from Marty Cole.  This “prospectus” doesn’t supersede his work but just adds to it by simply predictions by some rudimentary sabremetric methods.

 

            For those of you not used to my ramblings please note the following: this is all for fun and not to be taken personally.  As I always note: in 30 years plus of gaming I’ve won all of one championship.  By the way, the opposing coach is in the league and that’s not taking a shot at him either since I consider him a good friend.

 

            OK enough of that and onto the “insights” and “predictions”.

 

 

1959 Review

 

            Congrats to San Francisco and Manager Rob and similarly to the Senators and Manager Marty.  Both had great seasons.

 

            San Francisco ranked #1 in net runs with +186 and Washington was second with +141 so it is no wonder they both won their divisions.  Nor was it a surprise with their finish in the series finale. 

 

            Some other observations of note:

 

·        NL-Chicago clearly overachieved with a +58 run difference while Cincy was flat out “unlucky” with +105 but finishing 3 behind Chicago in the standings.  Similarly on the negative side of the ledger Pittsburgh was also “unlucky” with -83 runs but finishing behind St. Louis by -8 games (Browns were -121 in runs).  LA had the worst difference with -271.

·        AL-NY should’ve finished 4th; Detroit 5th and Boston 6th in terms of run differential.  Boston had an outstanding season coming in 4th and winning 81 games despite being outscored by -27.  KC came in last with -127 runs and 3 games worse than LA but plays in a much tougher division.

·        How much tougher you ask? The AL had an overall record of 551-527 or a .511 winning 5.  I’ll spare the suspense: this gap is going to widen in 1960.  The AL is far superior at this point in our evolution.

 

It is always fascinating to compare “real life” stats to simulation.  Of course it is more “difficult” to score in simulation due to the concentration of pitching (football=defense).  What is the comparison to MLB?

 

It is pretty interesting to me how accurate these games are in terms of reproducing statistics in an overall sense.  Some of the individual’s numbers are inevitably “off” but that is due to competition and general “luck” involved but that should even out over time.  (I thought it was this “clutch” rating but Dick Farrell wasn’t clutch finishing with a +10 ERA with a 10 clutch rating). 

 

Here are some stats per game and the comparison between CTMBL and MLB in 1959:

 

·        At Bats: CTMBL +1% (i.e. 34.38 vs. 34.03)

·        Runs: -8.7%!

·        Hits: +0.2%

·        1b: -0.4%

·        2b: -1.7%

·        3b: +4.8%

·        HR: +5.7%

·        BB: -0.1%

·        SO: +2.2%

·        HBP: -50.1%

·        SH: +27.5%

·        SF: +20.6%

·        TB: +1.2%

·        SB: -12.6%

·        SB%: exactly 62.7% for both!

·        Fielding %: exactly .977% for both!

·        Batting Average: -1.0%

·        OBP: -1.6%

·        Slugging: +0.2%

·        Runs/AB: -9.6%

·        IP: 0.5%

·        ER:-9.5%

·        R/IP: -9.2%

 

Our strategy in CTMBL reflects how tough it is to score.  Basically teams are giving up outs to try to get runners in scoring position to drive them in or hit the HR.  On the other hand there is no use trying to steal and have a runner thrown out “knowing” (i.e. “sensing”) that the HR differential is so large.  Clearly our pitchers are not aggressive (low HBP % or is that dependent on aggression?).  The other “feeling” I have (and I didn’t write down the stat or figure it out) is GDP.  My gut feel is we have more GDP’s than the MLB average of .7 per game.  I should check further. So I did. I went to the usual source: the Jesse home page site which I use all the time.  For some reason the NL team charts are not there but the AL was and I found out that the AL averaged .967 per game.  In other words the average AL team had 149 in 1959 while an MLB had only 108.  Multiply that number by 14 teams and we “lost” an astounding 574 outs due to DP’s!  This is a whopping incremental negative value of -21.25 losses! 

 

Similarly let’s examine the strategy of sacrifice hits.  We “lost” an incremental 9.41 games last year vs. MLB due to sacrifice hits.  Saying it differently the average MLB team had 71 and the CTMBL had 89.  The “real” leader had 100 (LA) while our leader was, surprisingly, Washington (Isn’t it weird that LA won the WS in 1959 while Washington was our runner up?).  Clearly here were two successful teams.  However, Washington had a whopping total of 160 sacrifice hits of which over 50% were from 2b Bobby Richardson (83)!  Of course Manager Cole isn’t daft as many times Casey Stengel hit Bobby 9th himself.  And clearly it worked for Washington.  In spite of basically 6 games due to sacrificing-+2.63 games over the average- Washington outscored opponents by a 141.  On the other end of the spectrum is yours truly who sacrificed 105 times successfully but was still outscored by 121.  However, maybe it helped as Pittsburgh only bunting 38 times-and scoring the league average of 616 runs per game-but finished behind the Browns by 8 (Note: Pittsburgh should’ve come in 5th ahead of St. Louis by 5 games).  Frankly, I suspect there is a ratings “flaw” that allows too many bunts to be successful; or, it is again simply a matter of all of us realizing there are too many GDP’s and the way to avoid it is give up an out.  Given the DP and sacrifice situation you can see why our scoring is off by an average of 62 runs per team!

 

Here is the top 10 from the league reports on the website:

 

1.      Bobby Richardson Wash 83

2.      Johnny Temple Cin 36

3.      Billy Gardner StL 35

4.      Dick Hoak Wash 35

5.      Johnny Logan KC 27

6.      Billy Bruton Balt 23

7.      Nellie Fox SF 23

8.      Hobie Landrith Wash 18

9.      Jim Bunning Cle 16

10.  Rocky Bridges StL 15

 

 

It seemed interesting to me that only one pitcher made the list and if memory serves correctly Bunning was a reasonable hitter.  It is mind boggling to note that Bobby Richardson gave up 3.1 games in sacrifices alone.  Marty: let the guy hit! 

 

Other interesting facts from 1959:

 

·        All of the top 10 in games played had 154.

·        All of the top 10 in at bats had over 600.

·        5 players scored over 100.

·        4 had over 200 hits led by Hank Aaron.

·        Speaking of Hank he led in batting average and HR’s but feel 13 RBI short of the lead league and a triple crown (I tried but that low obp –a league low .293-did the deed.)

·        Harvey Kuenn of Cleveland had 50 2b.

·        Gil McDougald of NY had 13 triples; 2 others had double figures.

·        Eddie Matthews of NY who led in scoring also had 51 HR!

·        9 players had over 100 rbi led by Bob Allison of Pittsburgh with 123.

·        Despite an anemic scoring output (12th in the league), St. Louis had 2 top 10 hitters: Aaron ranked 1st at .361 and Cepeda 5th at .319.  Um if I hadn’t had them we wouldn’t have scored!

·        LA ranked 13th in scoring with 503.  Yet despite this total, Joe Cunningham had an OBP of .439 and Eddie “Walking Man” Yost ranked 2nd with .417.  Cunningham ranked 3rd in batting average.  LA had no one in the top 10 for slugging.

·        St. Louis (Aaron #1 and Cepeda #9) and NY (Matthews #3 and Mantle #7) were the only teams with 2 players in top 10 in slugging. 

·        Mickey Mantle and Detroit’s Frank Robinson were in the top 10 for K’s and Walks.  Mantle’s 146 led the league.  This is 14 outs fewer than Washington’s 160 sacrifices. 

·        It makes sense to me: Frank Robinson and Baltimore’s exciting Minnie Minoso led the league in HBP with 9. 

·        Luis Aparicio of SF led the league in SB with 49; Mays and Gilliam of Chicago tied for 2nd at 27 each.  Gilliam had a net of 12 steals getting caught 15 times!  Aparicio had a net of 37.  Mantle was on both lists with 24 steals and 9 CS.  Combining his 146 K’s and 9 CS that’s 5.74 games lost for Mantle alone! 

·        SF had an outstanding pitching staff in 1959.  They had 3 in the top 10 in ERA led by Warren Spahn who surely was the Cy Young winner. 

·        Interestingly Detroit’s Vernon Law was “helped” by giving “up” 21 sacrifices and ending up 9th in ERA.  Spahn also makes both lists. 

 

Speaking of that SF staff check out this chart:

 

Pitcher-Clutch

IP

Hits

B Avg Versus

ERA

Spahn -10

286 (292)

222 (282)

.214 (.264)

1.76 (2.96)

Wynn-6

262 (256)

174 (202)

.190 (.216)

2.23 (3.16)

Hillman-7

196 (191)

145 (178)

.203 (.256)

1.79 (3.53)

Herbert-6

171 (184)

166 (196)

.254 (.275)

3.41 (4.84)

Cardwell-8

161 (153)

137 (135)

.230 (.246)

4.18 (4.06)

Larsen-9

105 (125)

55 (122)

.156 (.260)

1.89 (4.32)

 

            Besides the blinding obvious fantastic performances over the “norm” you wonder why did Cardwell “underachieve”?  Basically Don gave up +6 more HR’s than he did in real life which accounts for it.

 

            Could SF duplicate this performance? Not likely as the new clutch ratings are:

                        Spahn-3 (-7)

                        Wynn-5 (-1)

                        Herbert-5 (-1)

                        Cardell-5 (-3)

 

What about 1960? 

 

            Scoring rose slightly in 1960 moving from 678 runs per team to 688 or 1.47%.  Good news.  There are some other interesting trends:

·        3b up 5.3%

·        HR up 1.4%

·        BB up 3.1%

·        K’s only up 0.1%

·        HBP up 5%

·        SH up 8.6% (uh oh) and SF up by 6.8%

·        SB up 12.3% and CS up 15.8%; yes that’s a net negative!

·        Average +0.8%

·        OBP +1.2%

·        SLG +1.1%

·        R/AB +1.8%

 

These increases will have a positive impact on scoring in the CTMBL but probably not to the same degree. 

 

            I am predicting the average runs per team will rise from 616 to 625 in 1960.  This total accounts for the MLB increase and depressed for our concentration of pitching.  Plus, there is no reason to believe that our conservative tendencies (SH) will decline. Similarly, OPS should increase from .714 to .722.  Watch this space and we will see how well I do.  (I have the “average” game predicted and if someone wants that or any other numbers please let me know).

 

The Bottom Line: Who will win and lose?

 

            Based on the projection of average runs per team-both scored a given up-and how your team did versus the overall averages I have “determined” the order of finish.  Of course run differential does a pretty good job of predicting it is not perfect.  Last year run differential predicted the best teams; the worst teams and the eventual World Series winner.  In the middle there was some “luck” involved as we saw with Cincy vs. Chicago and Pittsburgh and St. Louis.  Similarly, Boston came out ahead of New York and Detroit with a more negative run differential.  Interestingly Boston was the only winning team with negative runs and New York is the vice versa of that statement.  I have also included a comparison of each team’s 4th starter (by GS) given that when we expand some of these guys will be aces!  OK here we go:

 

American League 1960

Washington 92-62 (-5)             Ralph Terry 35-23 GS 167 IP 3.40 ERA

Cleveland 89-65 (+2)               Billy Pierce 32-30/196/3.62

Detroit 89-65 (+15)                  Ray Sadecki 26-26/157/3.78

Boston 86 (+5)             Don Mossi 23-22/158/3.47

Baltimore 84 (0)                      Gene Conley 29-25/183/3.68

New York 71 (-5)                    Tom Brewer 34-29/187/4.82

Kansas City 63 (+11)               Frank Sullivan 40-22/154/5.10

 

National League 1960

San Francisco 81-73 (-16)            Don Cardwell 36-30/205/4.38

St Louis 81-73 (+12)               Bob Gibson 27-12/87/5.61

Cincy 77-77 (-7)                     Ernie Broglio 52-24/226/2.74

Philly 77-77 (+3)                 Sandy Koufax 37-26/175/3.91

Chicago 72-82 (-7)                  Stan Williams 39-30/207/3.00

Pittsburgh 64 (+3)                 Ike Delock 24-23/129/4.73

LA 52 (-3)                               Jerry Walker 29-18/118/3.74

 

            Some observations:

 

·        The AL would increase their record from 551 wins to 574!  Of course look at the predicted winners in the AL barely over .500.

·        On paper I felt Cleveland looked very strong; Detroit also and this bears it out. 

·        St. Louis: I don’t believe it.  I played Cincy last night with my #2 pitcher and got clobbered 9-1. 

·        Pittsburgh looks better than 64 wins.

·        These predictions don’t take into account the schedule “imbalance” which will have some affect on the records.  Sorry I don’t have that kind of time! 

·        It does suggest Cincy will be better than .500 when your 4th starter has those kinds of numbers.

·        There is super star potential in this 4th starter list: Gibson and Koufax!

·        In the AL our pick, Washington, has the lowest 4th starter ERA.

·        Our NL picks, SF and StL, have the two worst 4th starters.

·        Go figure.

 

Who are the best players by position in 1960?

 

For the fun of it I laid out on a sheet of paper the starting lineups for each team by position and did a tournament: who do I like better?  The “knockout” tourney yielded these 1960 league All Stars (honestly I did not check to see if the OF played those positions!):

 

 

American League

C-Del Crandall Baltimore .294 with 19 HR

1b-Bill “Moose” Skowron Detroit 26 HR and .309 average

2b-Bill Mazeroski Detroit 11 HR with .273 and oh that turning the DP

SS-Dick Groat Boston 2 HR 0 SB with .325 average and can he play SS

3b-Eddie Mattthews NY 39 HR and .277

LF-Frank Robinson Detroit 31 HR, 13 SB and .297

CF-Mickey Mantle NY 40 HR; 14 SB and .275

RF-Roberto Clemente Washington 16 HR and .313

Super Sub-Minnie Minoso Baltimore 20 HR; 17 HR and .311

Pitching Staff: Cleveland

Reliever: Mike Fornieles Baltimore

 

National League

C-Yogi Berra Cincy 15 HR and .276

1b-Roy Sievers Philly 28 HR and .295

2b-Pete Runnels Philly 2 HR and .320

SS-Ernie Banks Cincy 41 HR and .271

3b-Eddie “Walking Man” Yost 14 HR and .260

LF-Orlando Cepeda St. Louis 24 HR; 15 SB and .297

CF-Willie Mays Chicago 29 HR; 25 SB and .319

RF-Henry Aaron St. Louis 40 HR; 16 SB and .292

Super Sub-Luis Aparicio San Francisco 2 HR but 51 SB; .277 and great D

Pitching Staff: Chicago

Reliever: Ed Roebuck SF

 

And finally why is 1960 special to me?

 

·        I got really interested in baseball in 1960.

·        I started collecting baseball cards in earnest.  I can see a lot of the AL/NL All Star card in my mind’s eye.

·        I watched with my Grandfather who was a town team baseball manager in a small town in northeast Nebraska; he managed against Richie Ashburn when Richie was a teenager.  I recall my grandfather saying when we saw him on TV (yes black and white and one channel): he was a “man” versus a group of “boys”.  (I met Ashburn at a baseball card show in NJ once and told him that story; he was really laughing about it! My mother and I tried to go to the museum in Tilden, his hometown, the last two trips but it is always closed.).

·        I went to a minor league game of the Lincoln, NE Stars and saw Pete Rose get in a fight.

·        And I decided Roberto Clemente was my favorite player.  I finally met him by total chance in 1971 in a Cincy hotel room; I still have the personalized autograph of “To Jay Best Wishes, Roberto Clemente”. I was really sad in 1972.

·        I contracted pneumonia in October of 1960 and was out from school for 2 weeks (including my birthday).  Lucky me: I saw one of the best series ever with Maz HR etc. My Grandfather watched with me and that was a cool memory. He became a big Twins fans: why? The Twins affiliate station was in South Dakota.

·        Finally, I still fool around with a 1960 Action replay by playing each game and am currently in late May.  I had a game last night where our St. Louis man, Bill Fischer, pitched and got blown out!  I take a look at the Retrosheet of the game and try to have the right people as subs/relief.  This one wasn’t too real as Cleveland won 8-5.  In real life it was 1-0 Cleveland.

·        Hey we’re picked to win so Bill has to pitch better than that!

·        Enjoy, 1960 was a great baseball year.

·        And www.retrosheet.org has a lot of new and interesting stuff.

 

 

Good luck!

 

Jay

November 17, 2008

Singapore